Incentives & the Blueline Blues...

As statistics go, here's one thats as banal as it is disheartening: In the 10 months that have passed this year, the Blueline bus service of our nation's capital has just claimed its 100th victim. 100 people have been scythed, mowed down, run over and killed...by a public bus service. See here for details.

I wont spend any time on verbose adjectives denunciating the state of affairs. As a citizen, I'm certainly entitled to...but we'll leave this to our over-anxious, over-bearing media. They bore us stiff with this already.

Instead, lets look at something more useful: Why is this happening? Most people blame reckless drivers. Blueline blames citizens who often cross roads in the midst of perilous traffic. I'd say the blame is probably 80:20 --> drivers:citizens. So, lets look at a typical Blueline driver, Mr. Gopal, and the incentives that drive him.

Today, Gopal is paid a fixed percentage of the day's earnings. In other words, the more the passengers he transports, the more money he makes. To Gopal, this translates to: the more rounds I can make, the more people I transport, the more money I make. Make more rounds by driving faster...and oh yeah, cut a few corners while I'm at it....approach that bus stand just a bit more quickly. $$$$. To me its as simple as that...you can train the drivers all you want, warn citizens to be careful...but we've got the wrong incentives in place...and THAT, is the real problem.

This point hit home hard while driving back last night from a wedding. I was struck by how disciplined our truck drivers are, at least relative to Blueline. By and large, they stick to their lane, stay off the fast lane and drive at reasonable speeds. And here's why: truckers are given a target per month: transport 500 tons (theoretical number) of cargo. There's no demand for anything more than that...so no credit for anything more. Truckers work out their own pace, which fortunately for us, keeps people on the roads safer.

Of all incentives, studies have repeatedly shown that renumerative incentives are far stronger than moral or coercive ones. So you can coerce drivers and citizens to be careful, you can appeal to the moral concience of everyone concerned, but as long as financial incentives contradict these, the situation will not reverse itself.

The government must regulate this service. Drivers must be paid a flat monthly fee with a reasonable objective of daily/monthly km's covered. De-link their reward from the risks they take...throw in stronger punitive action...and we might ensure that in the coming years, we chip away at this senseless loss of life.